An analyst investigated 40 letters from Warren Buffett – and decrypted his...

An analyst investigated 40 letters from Warren Buffett – and decrypted his success code

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The annual letters that activist investor and multibillionaire Warren Buffett wrote to the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders are legendary: Buffett began this tradition in 1977 – and continues to this day.

In these letters, Buffett describes the development of the holding company and expresses his opinion on the economic situation. The special feature is that Buffett’s letters are not only freely accessible to the public, but also written in such a simple language that they are also understandable for those who are not in the financial sector.

Michael Toth, a data scientist from New York, now set himself the task of analyzing all the entrepreneur’s letters. What he found out there could be the key to the success of the “Oracle of Omaha”.

Buffett’s picture of the world is largely optimistic

Warren Buffet as well as Melinda and Bill Gates are incomparable optimists, is always clear. But how should it be different if you have so much money in the account that you cannot spend it alone, right? As Melinda Gates said, however, success does not lead to optimism, but optimism leads to success.

This is exactly where Buffet’s secret lies: his letters are mostly positive and confident. As Toth shows on his website using diagrams, positive expressions such as “goal” or “excellent” predominate, while negative expressions such as “risk” and “difficult” are rarer. Above all, Buffett used them only when they were really appropriate – for example, after the crisis of September 11, 2001, or after the big collapse of the stock market in 1987.

Optimism leads to lasting happiness – and is contagious

Buffet’s optimistic view of the world has only advantages: those who are confident about life and focus on the positive aspects will also perceive them more – and thus only become happier. This particularity is even scientifically recognized and is called the Baader-Meinhoff Phenomenon: the sooner you focus on something, the more you encounter in everyday life. The BMP, incidentally, is not really concerned with the Red Army faction. In 1994, a user gave an online forum to recognize Andreas Baader and Ulrike Meinhof on the street after listening to radio.

Optimism also has a contagious effect. Through his never-ending optimism, Buffett brings people to buy stocks. As a result, the market value increases, the company’s value increases and Buffett’s income increases more – a win-win situation for all parties involved.

No pain no gain

Even if you are optimistic, you should note that optimism alone is not a success: just hoping that something is better will not change the situation. As Melinda Gates once said, “optimism is not the belief that everything will automatically become better, but the conviction that you can make everything better.” And this also includes (unfortunately) hard work.

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I am a lecturer at the University of Economics in Bratislava, department of Banking and International Finance. I have a Ph.D. academic degree, my dissertation was focused on major markets. Commodities and stock markets are also the main focus of my research and publication activities. I have approximately 10 years of investing experiences. My investments mostly focus on small- to mid-cap companies of energy sector, financial and technology.

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